The Jewelry Landscape in Europe
In 2023 the gold and jewelry sector closed with decidedly good figures and, in light of stable world demand for jewelry, Italy is shining brightly
The figures reported in March 2024 from Intesa Sanpaolo Studies and Research Department’s latest study show that, in 2023, the Italian jewelry industry exported 9.2 billion euros worth of gold jewelry, up 12.1% in value and 4.2% in quantity. With a 7.4% increase in turnover, the jewelry sector is doing well compared to other sectors such as manufacturing (-0.9%) or the fashion system, which grew by 1.7%. And even production, despite the 1.9% drop, performed better than the other two sectors surveyed, which dropped by 7.3% and 2.6% respectively.
«In the European context, Italy confirms its leading position in terms of exports: in the January-November period (the latest data available for comparison with other European countries), about half of gold jewelry exports were generated by Italy (48%) and also in terms of growth, the country shows trends in line with its first competitor, France (+13.6%),» explains economist Sara Giusti.
«The export trend from Ireland, which shows higher growth (+20.6%), deserves an ad hoc, in-depth analysis, although this market has only reported significant flows since 2020. Moreover, it is worth noting, in view of the country's emerging role as a logistical hub, that 85% of Irish gold jewelry imports come from Italy.» On the non-European front, on the other hand, Switzerland is the main outlet market with a growth of 34.2% in value and exports amounting to Euro 1.3 billion, thus surpassing sales to the United States which amounted to Euro 1.2 billion (+4.7%). However, the US market still ranks first in terms of quantity with 47 tonnes in the January-December period (+33.3%). As for raw materials, gold is the focus of expectations. After an extremely volatile 2023 due to frequent swings in market expectations on US monetary policy and unexpected crises, including the banking crisis in March and the Hamas attack on Israel in October, 2024 opened under the banner of consolidation with the price above USD 2,000. «Given the current macroeconomic scenario,» commodities economist, Daniela Corsini, points out, «the expectations regarding the upcoming US monetary policy turnaround and the resilience of final demand, we confirm our forecast that the price of gold could trade between $1,900 and $2,300 over the course of the year, with an average for 2024 of $2,050 an ounce,» she continues. «We see upside risks main- ly concentrated in Q2, when we estimate an average price of $2,100 due to a number of favorable conditions (transition to more accommodative monetary policies, geopolitical risks and uncertainty, demand for safe haven assets). Conversely, we believe downside risks could be more pronounced in Q4, when we estimate an average price of $2,000. In 2025, we expect an average price of USD 2,050, in line with the expected average in 2024, while a long-term bullish trend could be established from 2026 on.»
«In the European context, Italy confirms its leading position in terms of exports: in the January-November period (the latest data available for comparison with other European countries), about half of gold jewelry exports were generated by Italy (48%) and also in terms of growth, the country shows trends in line with its first competitor, France (+13.6%),» explains economist Sara Giusti.
«The export trend from Ireland, which shows higher growth (+20.6%), deserves an ad hoc, in-depth analysis, although this market has only reported significant flows since 2020. Moreover, it is worth noting, in view of the country's emerging role as a logistical hub, that 85% of Irish gold jewelry imports come from Italy.» On the non-European front, on the other hand, Switzerland is the main outlet market with a growth of 34.2% in value and exports amounting to Euro 1.3 billion, thus surpassing sales to the United States which amounted to Euro 1.2 billion (+4.7%). However, the US market still ranks first in terms of quantity with 47 tonnes in the January-December period (+33.3%). As for raw materials, gold is the focus of expectations. After an extremely volatile 2023 due to frequent swings in market expectations on US monetary policy and unexpected crises, including the banking crisis in March and the Hamas attack on Israel in October, 2024 opened under the banner of consolidation with the price above USD 2,000. «Given the current macroeconomic scenario,» commodities economist, Daniela Corsini, points out, «the expectations regarding the upcoming US monetary policy turnaround and the resilience of final demand, we confirm our forecast that the price of gold could trade between $1,900 and $2,300 over the course of the year, with an average for 2024 of $2,050 an ounce,» she continues. «We see upside risks main- ly concentrated in Q2, when we estimate an average price of $2,100 due to a number of favorable conditions (transition to more accommodative monetary policies, geopolitical risks and uncertainty, demand for safe haven assets). Conversely, we believe downside risks could be more pronounced in Q4, when we estimate an average price of $2,000. In 2025, we expect an average price of USD 2,050, in line with the expected average in 2024, while a long-term bullish trend could be established from 2026 on.»